Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bb3…2c62 crypto 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43,228 (-27%) realized −$43,228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%262W / 223L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$926est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$571
7 days+$469
14 days−$15,163
30 days−$15,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$7,230
sports 48% −$38,950
other 1% +$365
weather 0% +$51
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +22.4% +10.7% 58% 58% -0.9%
≤30d 63 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 52% -63.2%
≤90d 215 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 47% -45.5%
all 485 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 49% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 49% -35.4%
10% -24.9% 45% -41.6%
15% -32.2% 39% -47.2%
20% -38.8% 29% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$366 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43,228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses262 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$926
Open positions0
Markets (closed)485 / 485
History coverage112d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 485 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $156 −$150 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$56 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$23 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$38 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$24 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $133 +$584 +438%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 +$64 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$26 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$67 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$17 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1,376 +$156 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $682 +$301 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $102 +$290 +283%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $146 +$71 +49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$27 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$25 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $154 +$72 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$17 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$8 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $156 +$99 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $344 +$97 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$36 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $156 +$96 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$55 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$51 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$14 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $517 +$311 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $206 −$200 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $309 +$190 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $316 −$316 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 11 $609 +$146 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $406 +$97 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $206 −$200 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $203 +$38 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $207 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $74 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $76 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 34h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $717 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $467 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $133 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $77 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $62 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 98¢ $1,532 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $1,376 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1871 history records