Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5B 0x5bb2…97ed sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$381 (+13%) realized +$361 · open +$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Drawdown53%max

Avg bet$143per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$43est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$881

7 days+$995

14 days+$995

30 days+$995

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-0.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+10.3%	-0.2%	50%	50%	+27.5%
≤30d	18	+10.3%	-0.2%	50%	50%	+27.5%
≤90d	18	+10.3%	-0.2%	50%	50%	+27.5%
all	18	+10.3%	-0.2%	50%	50%	+27.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.2%	50%	+27.5%
10%	-9.8%	50%	+15.3%
15%	-18.5%	44%	+4.1%
20%	-26.5%	39%	-6.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$218 vs −$107 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$420

Realized+$361

Unrealized+$20

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Est. fees paid−$43

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage9d

Avg bet$143

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown53%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Yakult Brothers	62¢	68¢	$200	$222	+$22 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Aurora Gaming	56¢	56¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	Jun 18	$202	+$87	+43%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$255	+$637	+250%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)	Jun 18	$127	−$125	-99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 17	$153	−$150	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$254	−$250	-99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$203	+$232	+114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$153	+$276	+180%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$248	+$285	+115%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$204	−$200	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$203	+$181	+89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 15	$11	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+34%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$113	−$113	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$101	+$80	+79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$99	+$179	+180%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China	BUY Yakult Brothers	62¢	$202	1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	56¢	$203	1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	SELL Team Resilience	91¢	$289	4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Resilience	63¢	$202	4h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)	BUY Phoenix Mercury	56¢	$127	7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	28¢	$255	16h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	29¢	$153	19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	53¢	$254	19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$203	32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	34¢	$102	34h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	38h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	35¢	$51	38h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	35¢	$51	38h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	35¢	$51	38h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	88¢	$533	38h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$248	40h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	36¢	$204	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$384	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$2	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$1	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$3	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$203	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	55¢	$101	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	35¢	$99	3d
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$40	8d
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$1	8d
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$9	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.29 · official $420.29 (match) · 38 history records