trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $774,547 | $778,559 | +$4,012 (+1%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $291,164 | $291,602 | +$438 (+0%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $72,377 | $72,982 | +$605 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | Jun 08 | $163,733 | +$164 | +0% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $681 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 06 | $1,777,243 | +$1,000,000 | +56% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $18,503,903 | +$65,025 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Jun 02 | $114,119 | +$2,451 | +2% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $29,641 | +$356 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,132,000 | +$10,193 | +1% |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | Jun 01 | $201,400 | +$1,309 | +1% |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 23 | $63,824 | +$676 | +1% |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 23 | $105,947 | +$1,039 | +1% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 23 | $151,689 | +$1,627 | +1% |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | May 15 | $98,070 | +$1,136 | +1% |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $55,388 | +$35,272 | +64% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $227,127 | +$291,956 | +128% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 13 | $508,876 | +$2,213 | +0% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | May 13 | $53,089 | +$104 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +18.9% | +7.5% | 100% | 33% | +37.1% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +16.2% | +5.1% | 100% | 19% | -4.0% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +16.2% | +5.1% | 100% | 19% | -4.0% |
| all | 16 | +16.2% | +5.1% | 100% | 19% | -4.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +5.1% | 19% | -4.0% |
| 10% | -4.9% | 19% | -13.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -14.1% | 19% | -21.6% |
| 20% | -22.5% | 19% | -29.3% |