Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5B 0x5bb0…e03e other 18 markets active 3h ago coverage 104d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$358 (+24%) realized +$361 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%12W / 4L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$101

7 days+$189

14 days+$189

30 days+$189

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+20.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+31.7%	+19.1%	83%	83%	+20.0%
≤30d	6	+31.7%	+19.1%	83%	83%	+20.0%
≤90d	12	+37.1%	+24.0%	75%	75%	+18.8%
all	16	+33.7%	+20.9%	75%	75%	+18.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.9%	75%	+18.6%
10%	+9.4%	62%	+7.2%
15%	-1.2%	62%	-3.1%
20%	-10.9%	50%	-12.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 28% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +64% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$38 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage

Net worth$249

Realized+$361

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses12 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage104d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$252	$249	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$48	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$53	+52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$75	+$9	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$71	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$63	+62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	−$54	-54%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23?	Apr 23	$50	−$30	-61%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 19	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?	Apr 19	$20	+$47	+238%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	Apr 18	$50	+$34	+67%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton	Apr 18	$60	+$42	+70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26?	Mar 27	$82	+$33	+41%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 19	$70	+$12	+18%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$44	+$26	+59%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$100	+$69	+69%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$51	−$27	-52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$256	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	48¢	$102	24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$154	35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$75	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$164	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	36¢	$46	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	4d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23?	SELL Yes	18¢	$20	59d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23?	BUY Yes	45¢	$50	59d
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	SELL Arthur Fils	100¢	$84	64d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$40	64d
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	BUY Arthur Fils	59¢	$50	64d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton	BUY Ben Shelton	58¢	$60	67d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26?	BUY Yes	71¢	$82	88d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	85¢	$70	95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$70	95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$44	102d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$169	103d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	19¢	$24	103d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	59¢	$100	103d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	103d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.65 · official $248.65 (match) · 35 history records