Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bae…5fce other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$167 (-17%) realized −$171 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$6
14 days−$38
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$86
sports 23% +$21
crypto 21% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.1% -19.5% 75% 75% -0.5%
≤30d 48 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 46% -27.2%
≤90d 48 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 46% -27.2%
all 48 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 46% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 46% -27.2%
10% -15.4% 27% -34.2%
15% -23.6% 19% -40.6%
20% -31.0% 12% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage22d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 85¢ 97¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +22%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -40%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 +$4 +873%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$7 +351%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $60 −$59 -97%
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw? Jun 02 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $55 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $62 −$53 -86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$69 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $24 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $19 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $44 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 98¢ $15 10d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 97¢ $12 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 87¢ $11 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.97 · official $33.97 (match) · 101 history records