Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5bae…ae53 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,415 (-4%) realized −$4,415 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%56W / 57L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$973per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$1,223est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$234
7 days−$234
14 days−$293
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$4,042
other 45% −$388
crypto 3% −$1,205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -70.3% -73.2% 0% 0% -73.2%
≤30d 9 -15.3% -23.3% 44% 33% -9.4%
≤90d 92 -0.9% -10.4% 54% 34% -13.3%
all 113 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 30% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 30% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 22% -22.4%
15% -27.1% 20% -29.9%
20% -34.3% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,331) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$298 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,415
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses56 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage104d
Avg bet$973
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $333 −$234 -70%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $90 −$89 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $242 −$237 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $14 +$7 +54%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $63 +$145 +231%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $4,323 +$191 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $700 +$300 +43%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 28 $126 −$126 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $4,844 +$225 +5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $259 +$17 +6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $253 −$26 -10%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $410 −$143 -35%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $237 +$93 +39%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $185 +$156 +84%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $211 −$78 -37%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $92 +$16 +17%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $307 −$89 -29%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $445 +$282 +63%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $227 −$26 -12%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $25 +$2 +6%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $207 −$32 -16%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $134 +$135 +100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $137 −$3 -2%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $135 +$21 +16%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $94 +$44 +47%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $967 −$926 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 06 $843 −$843 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 06 $320 +$59 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 06 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 06 $157 −$150 -96%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $2,531 +$1,108 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 05 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 05 $90 −$49 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4AM ET May 05 $804 +$73 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET May 05 $103 +$67 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 05 $105 −$82 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 05 $104 +$6 +5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $1,305 −$129 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 04 $5 +$9 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 04 $210 +$137 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 04 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $1,635 +$267 +16%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $9,269 −$3,339 -36%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $114 −$2 -2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $390 +$244 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL India 17¢ $99 55m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 55¢ $333 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 0¢ $0 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 19¢ $90 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $19 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 3¢ $4 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 3¢ $1 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 6¢ $6 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 6¢ $43 11d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 19¢ $21 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 7¢ $144 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $1 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $2 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $2 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $1 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $4 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $1 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 70¢ $208 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $2 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $2 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $2 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $2 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 5¢ $2 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 6¢ $8 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 21¢ $63 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 6¢ $2 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 6¢ $0 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 6¢ $1 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 6¢ $1 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 6¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1461 history records