Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5bab…50aa sports 807 markets active 0h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,562 (-4%) realized −$7,562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%484W / 321L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$539
14 days−$1,548
30 days−$3,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$7,433
other 37% +$1,193
politics 12% +$1,323
crypto 5% −$1,414
economics 1% −$38
finance 1% −$748
weather 1% −$351
world 1% −$347
culture 0% +$118
tech 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.7% -22.0% 47% 47% -26.1%
≤30d 95 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 46% -32.6%
≤90d 227 -11.8% -20.2% 56% 48% -22.2%
all 805 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 52% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 52% -13.3%
10% -22.9% 38% -21.6%
15% -30.3% 23% -29.2%
20% -37.1% 13% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$147 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$7,562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses484 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions1
Markets (closed)805 / 807
History coverage605d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $59 +$179 +303%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $188 −$186 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $144 +$44 +31%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $53 +$24 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $97 +$71 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $32 −$31 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $149 −$90 -60%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $142 +$32 +23%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $101 −$4 -4%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $150 +$93 +62%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $74 −$73 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$21 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$88 -43%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $175 −$175 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$13 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $77 +$41 +54%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $141 +$29 +21%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $246 −$70 -29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$46 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $295 −$69 -23%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $58 +$13 +23%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $382 −$3 -1%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$7 -7%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $302 −$15 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $142 −$86 -60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $135 −$53 -39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $402 −$206 -51%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 +$19 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$41 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $333 +$128 +38%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $56 +$13 +23%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $236 +$48 +20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $249 +$19 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 15m
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Qa BUY 68¢ $234 16m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $238 23m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $59 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 65¢ $188 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $144 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $102 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 23h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 23h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $28 24h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $28 24h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $53 25h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $121 25h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $174 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $97 25h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 80¢ $97 25h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $142 27h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $242 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $150 28h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 69¢ $74 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.63 · official $236.01 · 2265 history records