Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5ba6…72b2 crypto 1303 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%625W / 708L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$446
7 days−$234
14 days−$234
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 394 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 49% -17.4%
≤30d 394 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 49% -17.4%
≤90d 1333 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 44% -13.7%
all 1333 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 44% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 44% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 40% -22.0%
15% -26.8% 36% -29.5%
20% -34.0% 31% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses625 / 708
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1333 / 1303
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1333 Trades
no open positions (499 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.56 · official $5.56 (match) · 3500 history records