trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 0% | 0% | -12.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -15.8% | -23.9% | 33% | 0% | -28.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -13.0% | -21.3% | 46% | 8% | -27.8% |
| all | 13 | -13.0% | -21.3% | 46% | 8% | -27.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.3% | 8% | -27.8% |
| 10% | -28.8% | 8% | -34.7% |
| 15% | -35.7% | 8% | -41.0% |
| 20% | -42.0% | 8% | -46.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $70 | $69 | −$0 (-1%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $64 | $64 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $24 | $24 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Jun 25 | $46 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Jun 14 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $40 | −$2 | -6% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $3 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 22 | $2 | $0 | -24% |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A | May 22 | $2 | +$1 | +73% |
| Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? | May 11 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? | May 11 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? | May 11 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 11 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |