Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b9e…c51e other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-10%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$35
politics 33% −$3
crypto 22% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 6 -15.8% -23.9% 33% 0% -28.4%
≤90d 13 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 8% -27.8%
all 13 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 8% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 8% -27.8%
10% -28.8% 8% -34.7%
15% -35.7% 8% -41.0%
20% -42.0% 8% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage146d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 83¢ 82¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 25 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 −$2 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1 $0 -34%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $2 $0 -24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 22 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 11 $1 $0 +6%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? May 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $64 1h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $71 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 80¢ $44 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 11d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 11d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $46 11d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $37 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 34d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 61¢ $1 34d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 34d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 45d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $2 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 90¢ $1 116d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $1 116d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $1 116d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $1 116d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $2 146d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $1 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.27 · official $157.27 (match) · 70 history records