Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b9c…772f other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$13
sports 20% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.5% -22.6% 33% 33% -14.7%
≤30d 9 -14.5% -22.6% 33% 33% -14.7%
≤90d 9 -14.5% -22.6% 33% 33% -14.7%
all 9 -14.5% -22.6% 33% 33% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 33% -14.7%
10% -30.0% 22% -22.9%
15% -36.8% 22% -30.3%
20% -43.0% 11% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -59%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$9 -74%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $22 +$4 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$13 +99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 59m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $49 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 73¢ $18 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 73¢ $3 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 73¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 73¢ $1 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $22 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $22 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.69 · official $9.69 (match) · 29 history records