Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b9c…6999 crypto 21 markets active 6d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-30%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$44
sports 9% −$15
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 55% -31.0%
≤30d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 55% -31.0%
≤90d 21 -21.3% -28.8% 48% 38% -40.9%
all 21 -21.3% -28.8% 48% 38% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 38% -40.9%
10% -35.6% 33% -46.5%
15% -41.9% 29% -51.7%
20% -47.6% 24% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage51d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Apr 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 23 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 21 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records