Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b9b…abec other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-5%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%106W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$3
other 31% −$1
sports 17% −$9
politics 5% −$6
world 2% −$2
weather 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.0% -0.5% 53% 53% -0.1%
≤30d 94 -14.1% -22.3% 35% 28% -25.0%
≤90d 223 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 41% -15.6%
all 223 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 41% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -15.6%
10% -24.3% 36% -23.7%
15% -31.7% 29% -31.1%
20% -38.4% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses106 / 117
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)223 / 237
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 35¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$1 -34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 $0 +31%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -16%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +35%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1 $0 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO May 29 $1 $0 -5%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 29 $1 $0 +2%
Will Fuego win LRN 2026 Split 1? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $1 $0 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) May 27 $1 $0 -5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $2 −$1 -32%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 26 $1 $0 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 58¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 59¢ $2 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 90¢ $3 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 29h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 74¢ $2 30h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $1 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $1 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 56¢ $1 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $1 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.82 · official $12.82 (match) · 481 history records