Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b9a…15df crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+2%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate85%116W / 20L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day148.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 26% -6.5%
≤30d 136 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 26% -6.5%
≤90d 136 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 26% -6.5%
all 136 +1.4% -8.2% 85% 26% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 26% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 10% -15.4%
15% -25.0% 7% -23.6%
20% -32.4% 3% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses116 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day148.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $277 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $271 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $177 +$37 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $170 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $69 +$21 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $110 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $71 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $135 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $179 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $74 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $134 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $86 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $138 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $85 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $97 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $92 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $74 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $44 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $46 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $71 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $70 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $45 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 604 history records