Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b9a…73fa sports 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,392 (+11%) realized +$3,412 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%197W / 176L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$292
14 days−$311
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$540
other 28% +$2,752
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -50.6% -55.3% 22% 22% -53.7%
≤30d 51 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 45% -23.1%
≤90d 241 +4.7% -5.2% 53% 50% -10.8%
all 373 +4.8% -5.1% 53% 49% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 49% -0.1%
10% -14.2% 46% -9.7%
15% -22.5% 42% -18.4%
20% -30.1% 39% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$31 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$3,412
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses197 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage256d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) FOKUS 52¢ 25¢ $38 $18 −$20 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 4 Winner Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $45 −$4 -10%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $35 +$24 +67%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $48 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $29 +$19 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $26 −$24 -94%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$35 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$17 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $18 −$11 -59%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $15 +$14 +89%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $21 +$15 +70%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$21 +102%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $26 −$6 -24%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $23 +$18 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $16 +$17 +105%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $21 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $24 +$17 +68%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 −$6 -19%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $17 +$13 +73%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $26 +$24 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $23 −$18 -76%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $16 −$13 -79%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$46 +92%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $18 +$12 +66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $23 +$15 +68%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 3 Winner Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $23 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner May 29 $22 +$14 +63%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $34 +$22 +63%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 29 $20 +$14 +73%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 4 Winner May 29 $21 +$13 +65%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game May 29 $35 −$20 -57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) BUY FOKUS 52¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 4 Winner BUY KOLESIE 46¢ $59 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 55¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 53¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 54¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 58¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $48 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 48¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 44¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 4¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 52¢ $21 4d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 5d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 36¢ $18 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 21¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.32 · official $40.31 · 1090 history records