Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5B 0x5b99…1328 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$95 (+14%) realized +$79 · open +$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip

Net edge+17%after slip

Net WR76%break-even

Win rate82%14W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$108

7 days+$49

14 days+$56

30 days+$56

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +76%

net ROI/market (all)+17.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+27.2%	+15.1%	77%	69%	-0.2%
≤30d	14	+27.9%	+15.7%	79%	71%	+0.8%
≤90d	14	+27.9%	+15.7%	79%	71%	+0.8%
all	17	+29.5%	+17.2%	82%	76%	+2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.2%	76%	+2.4%
10%	+5.9%	76%	-7.4%
15%	-4.3%	59%	-16.3%
20%	-13.7%	24%	-24.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +29% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +53% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$35 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage

Net worth$166

Realized+$79

Unrealized+$16

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses14 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage133d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	90¢	100¢	$150	$166	+$16 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$52	+$22	+42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$21	+$13	+61%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$11	+$29	+276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$94	+$8	+9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$27	+$17	+64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$32	+$18	+56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$63	−$63	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$45	+$14	+31%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	+$7	+34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$41	+$16	+38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$21	−$21	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$21	+$9	+42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$21	+$8	+36%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 09	$15	+$6	+41%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Mar 01	$13	+$3	+24%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 10	$9	+$4	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$156	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$21	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$52	24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$11	37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$94	40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$27	43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$32	47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$45	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$63	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$21	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$57	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$21	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$21	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	90¢	$21	6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$21	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$21	11d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	71¢	$15	106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	BUY Yes	81¢	$13	113d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Seahawks	68¢	$9	132d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.42 · official $166.42 (match) · 36 history records