Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b97…8364 other 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$24
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 21% −$18
economics 8% −$13
politics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$9
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 79 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage127d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $295 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $680 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $474 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $377 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $291 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $402 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $175 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $480 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $399 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $299 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $199 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 3h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $41 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 7h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 8h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $42 10h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $41 11h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 13h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $9 14h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $9 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 19h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 23h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 25h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 26h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 34h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 37h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 39h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 41h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 44h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1398 history records