trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -38.9% | -44.7% | 17% | 17% | -47.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +35.6% | +22.7% | 27% | 27% | -21.1% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +10.9% | +0.3% | 29% | 24% | -24.9% |
| all | 19 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 32% | 21% | -20.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.2% | 21% | -20.9% |
| 10% | -11.5% | 21% | -28.5% |
| 15% | -20.1% | 21% | -35.4% |
| 20% | -27.9% | 21% | -41.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $45 | $42 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $31 | −$30 | -97% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $46 | −$45 | -98% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $46 | −$45 | -97% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $31 | +$82 | +267% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $72 | −$58 | -80% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$56 | +276% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$67 | +649% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $31 | −$30 | -97% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $157 | +$172 | +109% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 02 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 02 | $67 | −$15 | -22% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | Apr 01 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Apr 01 | $68 | −$68 | -100% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Apr 01 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 17 | $100 | −$33 | -33% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 05 | $400 | +$10 | +2% |