Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b96…9fd6 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$192 (-13%) realized −$189 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$209
other 34% −$74
sports 10% +$153
politics 4% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.9% -44.7% 17% 17% -47.7%
≤30d 11 +35.6% +22.7% 27% 27% -21.1%
≤90d 17 +10.9% +0.3% 29% 24% -24.9%
all 19 +8.1% -2.2% 32% 21% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 21% -20.9%
10% -11.5% 21% -28.5%
15% -20.1% 21% -35.4%
20% -27.9% 21% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$45 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage118d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$82 +267%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$58 -80%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$67 +649%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $157 +$172 +109%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 02 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 02 $67 −$15 -22%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Apr 01 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Apr 01 $68 −$68 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $100 −$33 -33%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $400 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $46 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $46 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $113 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $41 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $12 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $31 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 8d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $157 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL Yes $106 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $52 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $67 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes $100 80d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 80d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes $67 95d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $100 96d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY Yes $110 108d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $410 108d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $400 112d
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $68 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.78 · official $71.78 (match) · 34 history records