Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b94…87d9 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,386 (-8%) realized −$1,399 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,391
7 days+$1,407
14 days+$184
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,443
other 48% +$1,932
world 2% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 57% +4.3%
≤30d 44 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 52% -8.3%
≤90d 44 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 52% -8.3%
all 44 -1.9% -11.2% 55% 52% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 52% -8.3%
10% -19.7% 52% -17.1%
15% -27.5% 45% -25.1%
20% -34.6% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$288 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,658
Realized−$1,399
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage10d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1,000 $1,007 +$7 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $446 $453 +$8 (+2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $475 −$475 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $898 +$493 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $665 +$1,372 +206%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $788 −$777 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$72 +71%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$154 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $302 +$88 +29%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$46 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $508 +$512 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$44 +43%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $336 +$157 +47%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $391 +$134 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $263 −$261 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $806 −$800 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $203 +$201 +99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $303 +$110 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $653 −$649 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $37 +$11 +30%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$578 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $202 +$80 +40%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $102 −$3 -3%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$322 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $202 +$88 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 4¢ $103 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $370 13h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 48¢ $372 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $392 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Ecuador win on 20 BUY 54¢ $393 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $665 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $788 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $304 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $357 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $152 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $101 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $302 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $147 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,019 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,658.45 · official $1,644.17 (match) · 83 history records