Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b91…2f6b sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$2
politics 31% −$2
other 18% −$2
tech 11% −$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 24 +2.5% -7.3% 21% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage157d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 April 13-19? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $18 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $4 +$2 +43%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jan 19 $13 +$2 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Jan 17 $354 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 17 $319 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will there be no coalition by October 31? Jan 16 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $361 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $369 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $372 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $373 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Jan 13 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $375 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $281 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 10 $379 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $362 $0 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 09 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 22m
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 56m
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 54d
Will Solana reach $130 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $6 62d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 93d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 104d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $4 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? SELL No 99¢ $36 147d
Pacers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 84¢ $13 149d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja SELL No 100¢ $354 149d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja BUY No 100¢ $354 149d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $319 149d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $319 149d
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $331 150d
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $331 150d
Will there be no coalition by October 31? SELL No 99¢ $335 150d
Will there be no coalition by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $335 150d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $366 150d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $366 151d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $361 151d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $361 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $36 151d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $331 152d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $331 152d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $369 152d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $369 152d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $371 152d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $372 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $373 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.15 · official $8.15 (match) · 70 history records