trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 67% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 24 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 21% | 8% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 8% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -16.1% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -24.2% | 4% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? | May 26 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana reach $130 April 13-19? | Apr 22 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 14 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Feb 28 | $4 | +$2 | +43% |
| Pacers vs. Pistons | Jan 19 | $13 | +$2 | +19% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? | Jan 19 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja | Jan 17 | $354 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 17 | $319 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jan 16 | $331 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be no coalition by October 31? | Jan 16 | $335 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 15 | $366 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 15 | $361 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 14 | $331 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 14 | $369 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 13 | $372 | −$1 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 13 | $373 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the next Dutch government be another combination? | Jan 13 | $368 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 12 | $375 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 12 | $335 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 10 | $281 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin | Jan 10 | $379 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 09 | $362 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jan 09 | $210 | $0 | -0% |