Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b91…0fad crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$34
other 37% −$33
sports 12% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 26% -13.1%
≤30d 54 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 26% -13.1%
≤90d 54 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 26% -13.1%
all 54 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 26% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 26% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 22% -21.4%
15% -33.3% 20% -29.0%
20% -39.9% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -74%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$21 +120%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +126%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +280%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$17 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -53%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.15 · official $34.15 (match) · 161 history records