Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b91…2709 finance 418 markets active 4d ago coverage 146d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60,428 (+5%) realized +$72,588 · open −$12,160
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate80%293W / 75L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$2,918per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$96,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$15,827
finance 11% +$10,238
other 6% +$6,803
sports 3% +$4,376
tech 2% +$902
world 1% +$4,469
economics 1% +$14,952
crypto 0% +$678
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 39 +54.9% +40.1% 64% 31% -5.6%
≤90d 265 +14.3% +3.4% 80% 18% -6.2%
all 368 +23.4% +11.6% 80% 23% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 23% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 17% -11.5%
15% -8.8% 13% -20.1%
20% -17.7% 10% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$689) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$132 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$96,522
Realized+$72,588
Unrealized−$12,160
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses293 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions61
Markets (closed)368 / 418
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$2,918
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 78¢ $12,500 $19,438 +$6,938 (+56%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 79¢ $10,000 $15,870 +$5,870 (+59%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $5,000 $8,465 +$3,465 (+69%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $12,500 $5,562 −$6,938 (-56%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $4,638 $4,977 +$339 (+7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $10,000 $4,130 −$5,870 (-59%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3,249 $3,950 +$701 (+22%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 49¢ 57¢ $2,450 $2,875 +$425 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3,389 $2,730 −$659 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2,231 $2,510 +$279 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1,776 $2,350 +$574 (+32%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,674 $1,810 +$136 (+8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $5,000 $1,535 −$3,465 (-69%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,405 $1,370 −$35 (-2%)
Revolut IPO before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,225 $1,260 +$36 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,720 $1,190 −$530 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $653 $1,150 +$497 (+76%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,055 $1,130 +$75 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 96¢ $774 $955 +$181 (+23%)
Brex IPO before 2027? No 96¢ 99¢ $908 $931 +$23 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $900 $925 +$25 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 92¢ $490 $925 +$435 (+89%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Yes 80¢ 99¢ $679 $834 +$156 (+23%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $655 $747 +$92 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 73¢ 92¢ $458 $583 +$125 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $296 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 13 $102 −$19 -19%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $375 +$31 +8%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $1,556 −$218 -14%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $2,422 +$41 +2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $2,253 +$22 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $79 −$55 -70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $338 −$97 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,031 −$338 -33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $402 +$95 +24%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $3,226 +$204 +6%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $24 +$546 +2257%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 10 $342 +$38 +11%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $116 +$84 +72%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 08 $75 +$4 +5%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Jun 07 $370 +$27 +7%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win fewer than 13 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win 19-21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $4 +$3 +72%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority? Jun 06 $20 +$36 +178%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 05 $574 +$143 +25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 05 $82 +$49 +59%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close Jun 04 $90 +$285 +317%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $2,392 +$1,215 +51%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 04 $158 +$27 +17%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $753 +$27 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $336 −$151 -45%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $15,000 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $14 +$16 +110%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? May 26 $956 −$242 -25%
Will Ross Stores Q1 comparable store sales growth be above 12%? May 22 $353 +$3 +1%
Will Ross Stores Q1 comparable store sales growth be between 8% and 10 May 22 $181 +$2 +1%
Will Ross Stores Q1 comparable store sales growth be between 6% and 8% May 22 $320 +$6 +2%
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be above 76%? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1? May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will TJX Q1 comp sales growth be between 5% and 6%? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will TJX Q1 comp sales growth be above 6%? May 21 $47 +$1 +3%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 55B in Q1? May 21 $183 +$5 +3%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1? May 21 $1,414 −$47 -3%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 65B in Q1? May 21 $981 +$14 +1%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 80B in Q1? May 21 $1,709 +$66 +4%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 70B in Q1? May 21 $3,031 +$205 +7%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%? May 21 $3,232 +$54 +2%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be above 3%? May 21 $3,407 +$79 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 SELL Yes 13¢ $6 4d
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $62 4d
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $19 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $225 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 5d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 99¢ $198 5d
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $9 5d
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 SELL Yes 13¢ $10 6d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 81¢ $105 6d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL No 17¢ $34 8d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 81¢ $0 8d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 81¢ $0 8d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 81¢ $0 8d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 81¢ $0 8d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $2 8d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 81¢ $57 8d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 83¢ $166 8d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( SELL No 100¢ $406 8d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( SELL No 100¢ $1,746 8d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $29 8d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( SELL No 96¢ $16 8d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( SELL No 100¢ $122 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $1 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $10 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $10 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $3 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No $4 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No $138 8d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 99¢ $2,253 8d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( BUY No 92¢ $375 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96,522.47 · official $96,521.47 (match) · 3500 history records