Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b8a…6ec7 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$335 (+11%) realized +$347 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$983now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$490
sports 14% −$160
world 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -43.5% -48.9% 13% 13% +5.7%
≤30d 23 -43.5% -48.9% 13% 13% +5.7%
≤90d 23 -43.5% -48.9% 13% 13% +5.7%
all 23 -43.5% -48.9% 13% 13% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 13% +5.7%
10% -53.8% 13% -4.5%
15% -58.2% 13% -13.7%
20% -62.3% 9% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$24 · ×11.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$983
Realized+$347
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $760 $753 −$7 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $235 $230 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $175 +$244 +140%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $24 −$6 -24%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 −$7 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,008 +$482 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $58 −$33 -57%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $51 −$26 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $240 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $771 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $126 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $175 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $23 24h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 15¢ $46 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,008 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $982.56 · official $982.56 (match) · 45 history records