Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5B 0x5b88…eae5 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$579 (+41%) realized +$673 · open −$94

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$354per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-18.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-9.4%	-18.0%	67%	67%	+22.3%
≤30d	3	-9.4%	-18.0%	67%	67%	+22.3%
≤90d	3	-9.4%	-18.0%	67%	67%	+22.3%
all	3	-9.4%	-18.0%	67%	67%	+22.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.0%	67%	+22.3%
10%	-25.9%	67%	+10.6%
15%	-33.1%	67%	-0.1%
20%	-39.6%	0%	-9.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$228 vs −$10 · ×22.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×45.68 per $1 lost it wins $45.68

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized+$673

Unrealized−$94

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$354

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	80¢	26¢	$140	$46	−$94 (-68%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$105	+$37	+35%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$11	−$10	-94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,155	+$420	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$146	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$142	26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	12¢	$11	28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$105	28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,574	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1,155	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.50 · official $49.88 · 6 history records