Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b87…b93a world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+7%) realized +$30 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$20
politics 7% +$8
other 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.3% -3.9% 44% 36% -6.7%
≤30d 25 +6.3% -3.9% 44% 36% -6.7%
≤90d 25 +6.3% -3.9% 44% 36% -6.7%
all 25 +6.3% -3.9% 44% 36% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 36% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 32% -15.6%
15% -21.5% 28% -23.8%
20% -29.2% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 64¢ $17 $19 +$3 (+15%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 51¢ 72¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+43%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 57¢ 15¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 34¢ 89¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+162%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$5 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$3 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $38 +$18 +46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $9 −$3 -28%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $10 −$4 -47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $26 +$29 +114%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $95 −$31 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$7 -24%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$6 -44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -35%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +37%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 77¢ $1 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $3 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $8 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $5 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $0 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $0 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $10 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $6 15h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 16¢ $4 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $7 16h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $4 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 57¢ $10 30h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 31h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $9 32h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $2 32h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $7 32h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 54¢ $7 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.67 · official $44.35 (match) · 158 history records