Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b84…d074 other 992 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,426 (-1%) realized −$1,426 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%933W / 58L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$12
14 days−$20
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$692
sports 17% +$45
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 442 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 866 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 0% -10.1%
all 991 +1.4% -8.2% 94% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$31 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,426
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses933 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)991 / 992
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$212
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 991 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $132 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 0 - 2 Ceará SC? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 0 - 3 Ceará SC? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 3 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 3 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 0 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 3 - 0 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 2 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 2 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 1 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $84 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 1 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $384 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $384 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $383 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $383 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 1 - 0 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 3 - 0 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Universidad Católica 0 - 3 CD Universidad de Concepció Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
CD Universidad de Concepción leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Universidad Católica 1 - 1 CD Universidad de Concepció Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Universidad Católica 1 - 0 CD Universidad de Concepció Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Universidad Católica 0 - 1 CD Universidad de Concepció Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 3 Vila Nova FC? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 3 - 0 Vila Nova FC? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 2 - 2 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 1 - 3 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 3 - 2 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 2 - 3 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 3 - 1 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 3 - 0 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Unión La Calera 2 - 3 CF Universidad de Chile? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Unión La Calera 3 - 2 CF Universidad de Chile? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Unión La Calera 3 - 1 CF Universidad de Chile? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Unión La Calera 3 - 3 CF Universidad de Chile? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $287 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 0 - 3 CD Limache? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 0 - 2 CD Limache? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $379 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $104 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Ñublense 0 - 3 CD Huachipato? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 100¢ $160 19m
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $20 44m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 100¢ $132 45m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 100¢ $100 46m
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 3 Avaí FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 56m
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 3 Avaí FC? BUY No 100¢ $6 56m
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 2 Avaí FC? BUY No 100¢ $11 56m
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? SELL No 100¢ $52 57m
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? SELL No 100¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? SELL No 100¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? SELL No 100¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? SELL No 100¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? SELL No 100¢ $28 57m
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 1 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $71 58m
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 1 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 1 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 1 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 1 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 2 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 2 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 1 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 2 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 1 Avaí FC? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 3 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 2 Avaí FC? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 2 Avaí FC? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Ceará SC? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 2 - 3 Avaí FC? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 2 Avaí FC? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records