Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
5B 0x5b7f…b293 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$9
sports 27% −$67
other 16% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -7.0% -15.8% 40% 10% -11.6%
all 10 -7.0% -15.8% 40% 10% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 10% -11.6%
10% -23.9% 10% -20.0%
15% -31.2% 0% -27.8%
20% -38.0% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage85d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 28 $368 −$8 -2%
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? Jun 28 $370 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 18 $235 +$4 +2%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $237 −$1 -0%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) May 29 $77 −$76 -100%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $53 +$15 +29%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) Apr 22 $408 +$7 +2%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 21 $413 $0 -0%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) Apr 06 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Apr 04 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $6 41m
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $348 42m
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $6 42m
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $368 1h
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $370 2h
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $370 5h
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $238 9d
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $235 10d
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $237 10d
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $237 10d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY Rosenborg BK $35 30d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY Rosenborg BK $42 30d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL Yes $1 30d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL Yes $33 30d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL Yes $34 30d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY Yes $28 30d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY Yes $25 30d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Shanghai Haigang FC 98¢ $408 67d
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $412 67d
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $413 68d
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 99¢ $198 84d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $54 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $44 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $49 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 SELL No 97¢ $54 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 BUY No 98¢ $5 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 85d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records