Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b7f…400d crypto 52 markets active 6d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,044 (-42%) realized −$1,044 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,036
other 11% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 45% -10.9%
≤90d 50 -34.9% -41.1% 32% 30% -52.3%
all 50 -34.9% -41.1% 32% 30% -52.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 30% -52.3%
10% -46.7% 22% -56.8%
15% -51.9% 20% -61.0%
20% -56.6% 16% -64.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$32 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage27d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $250 $255 +$5 (+2%)
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 20 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 20 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 20 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 20 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 20 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 19 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 18 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 18 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 18 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 17 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 16 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $108 −$102 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 15 $418 −$412 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $1,002 +$27 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $257 6d
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.93 · official $258.75 (match) · 108 history records