Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b7b…7ce4 politics 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,899 (-1%) realized −$1,899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,219per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$131
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$97
other 34% −$47
sports 16% −$1,719
culture 5% −$11
world 5% −$53
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 -2.7% -12.0% 10% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 120 -8.9% -17.6% 7% 3% -10.9%
all 179 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 9% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 9% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 8% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,780) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$1,899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,219
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $148 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 15 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $7,688 −$8 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $630 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,279 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,816 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $616 $0 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $67 +$29 +44%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,817 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,152 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $915 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $69 +$43 +62%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $232 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,021 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $392 +$1 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $821 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $405 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $315 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $318 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,200 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,252 −$2 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $583 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $584 2h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $591 42h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $592 44h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $674 44h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $675 46h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $641 46h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $642 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $771 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $772 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $594 3d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $595 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $586 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $586 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $745 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $746 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $629 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $630 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $755 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $756 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $621 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $622 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $572 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $148 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $573 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $506 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $507 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $619 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $619 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $891 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.73 · official $147.65 (match) · 591 history records