Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5b78…b771 crypto 1575 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$972 (-4%) realized −$972 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate76%1196W / 378L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$524
14 days−$144
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$465
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 577 -19.5% -27.2% 62% 54% -21.5%
≤30d 1172 -0.2% -9.7% 76% 67% -9.4%
≤90d 1574 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 64% -11.3%
all 1574 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 64% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 64% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 46% -19.7%
15% -26.3% 25% -27.5%
20% -33.5% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$972
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1196 / 378
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1574 / 1575
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.47 · official $5.47 (match) · 3500 history records