Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b76…3024 crypto 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+1%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate45%76W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$579
politics 13% −$34
other 3% +$312
world 1% −$17
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 54% 31% -10.7%
≤30d 142 -13.3% -21.5% 44% 29% -16.3%
≤90d 159 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 30% -12.2%
all 169 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 29% -12.4%
10% -22.5% 21% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 12% -28.4%
20% -36.8% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses76 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage126d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $78 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 27 $123 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 27 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $77 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 27 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 27 $156 −$133 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 27 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 27 $128 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 27 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 27 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 25 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $26 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $77 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 25 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $103 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 25 $77 −$22 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 25 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 25 $43 −$23 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $57 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 25 $51 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 25 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 25 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 25 $52 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 25 $78 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $82 +$28 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 707 history records