Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b76…49b1 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,277 (-1%) realized −$1,276 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%23W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$966per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$138
politics 32% −$44
sports 13% −$1,143
world 3% +$7
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% −$3
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 1% -10.1%
all 127 -9.1% -17.7% 18% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 8% -10.5%
10% -25.6% 8% -19.0%
15% -32.8% 6% -26.9%
20% -39.4% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,498) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$21 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized−$1,276
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses23 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage154d
Avg bet$966
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $673 $672 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $869 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,910 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $469 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,615 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,875 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,133 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,692 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,934 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,644 −$3 -0%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $1,181 −$1,181 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,235 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,948 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,855 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $3,311 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,816 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $2,748 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,702 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $3,228 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,475 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $495 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $496 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $673 28h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $892 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $893 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $818 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $819 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $942 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $944 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $869 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $980 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $981 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $864 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $865 6d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $816 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $817 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,268 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,270 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $900 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $902 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,129 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $871 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $872 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $339 17d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $340 17d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $481 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $671.95 · official $671.95 (match) · 387 history records