Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b72…eb7e crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$545 (+12%) realized +$531 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$212
7 days+$212
14 days+$212
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$229
other 4% −$9
world 4% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -16.9% -24.8% 40% 40% -4.8%
≤30d 47 -16.9% -24.8% 40% 40% -4.8%
≤90d 50 -15.9% -23.9% 40% 40% -4.9%
all 50 -15.9% -23.9% 40% 40% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 40% -4.9%
10% -31.2% 36% -14.0%
15% -37.9% 34% -22.3%
20% -44.0% 32% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$48 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$531
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage81d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 58¢ 48¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $22 +$22 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $78 +$55 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $166 +$118 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $209 +$93 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $259 +$184 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $91 +$77 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $304 −$273 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $95 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$55 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $155 +$115 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$23 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $163 −$55 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $67 +$47 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $137 +$181 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $193 −$9 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $467 +$382 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$68 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? Apr 12 $110 −$6 -6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $124 +$26 +21%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $55 −$9 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $23 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $47 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $82 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $83 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $89 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $180 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $29 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $52 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $42 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $156 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.64 · official $148.19 · 134 history records