Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5B 0x5b72…bedd politics 33 markets active 3h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,959 (+8%) realized +$884 · open +$1,075
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$712per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$12,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$418
7 days+$418
14 days+$418
30 days+$1,578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$1,547
world 6% +$339
other 6% +$1,240
culture 4% +$1,307
tech 1% +$769
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.7% +44.5% 100% 100% +30.5%
≤30d 4 +84.6% +67.0% 100% 100% +75.7%
≤90d 22 +58.9% +43.8% 64% 50% -3.7%
all 22 +58.9% +43.8% 64% 50% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.8% 50% -3.7%
10% +30.0% 41% -12.9%
15% +17.5% 36% -21.3%
20% +6.0% 36% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +131% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$427 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$12,381
Realized+$884
Unrealized+$1,075
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)22 / 33
History coverage82d
Avg bet$712
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $183 +$243 +133%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $353 +$93 +26%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $410 +$82 +20%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $728 +$1,160 +159%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $33 +$108 +330%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $44 +$133 +300%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $75 +$175 +233%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $225 +$769 +341%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Sol Zanetti be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Queb May 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ruba Ghazal be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Queb May 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 20 May 05 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Éric Duhaime be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Que May 05 $181 +$4 +2%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 14 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Te Apr 14 $997 −$997 -100%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and Apr 14 $390 +$610 +156%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Apr 14 $360 +$640 +178%
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 20 Apr 12 $489 −$489 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 11? Apr 11 $0 $0 -5%
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 Apr 08 $84 −$84 -100%
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? Apr 08 $102 −$144 -141%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $10,000 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $600 3h
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $57 4h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $426 4h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $447 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $492 4h
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 12¢ $262 4h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL Yes 22¢ $1,313 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $147 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $68 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $113 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $23 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $56 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $113 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $316 23h
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 21¢ $4 8d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 20¢ $163 8d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,380.83 · official $12,380.83 (match) · 378 history records