Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5b6d…297b sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 374d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,058 (+211%) realized +$2,075 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +313% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +274% what you keep after slip
Net edge+274%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,976
7 days+$1,976
14 days+$1,976
30 days+$2,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$2,201
economics 28% −$155
other 5% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+273.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +777.5% +694.0% 100% 100% +926.1%
≤30d 3 +588.3% +522.7% 100% 100% +544.7%
≤90d 4 +416.2% +367.0% 75% 75% +459.7%
all 5 +313.0% +273.6% 60% 60% +328.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +273.6% 60% +328.8%
10% +237.9% 60% +287.8%
15% +205.2% 60% +250.3%
20% +175.3% 60% +216.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +518% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +313% · $-wt +371% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$798 vs −$108 · ×7.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.11 per $1 lost it wins $11.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$2,075
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage374d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$116 +226%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $140 +$1,860 +1329%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 25 $200 +$420 +210%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $104 −$61 -58%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 11 $275 −$155 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 98¢ $239 26d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 77¢ $195 29d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $185 46d
Knicks vs. Hawks SELL Knicks 24¢ $18 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks SELL Knicks 24¢ $25 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 42¢ $25 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $56 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $0 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $15 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $0 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $1 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $4 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $1 57d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 22¢ $1 57d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 208d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 208d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 208d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 208d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 208d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 208d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 208d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 210d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 210d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 210d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 210d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 210d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 212d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.76 · official $182.76 (match) · 74 history records