Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5b6c…2352 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$388 (+17%) realized +$367 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$221
14 days+$440
30 days+$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$289
other 48% +$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +37.2% +24.1% 55% 55% +13.8%
≤30d 26 +39.8% +26.5% 54% 54% +20.0%
≤90d 26 +39.8% +26.5% 54% 54% +20.0%
all 27 +39.4% +26.1% 56% 56% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.1% 56% +18.9%
10% +14.0% 56% +7.5%
15% +3.0% 52% -2.9%
20% -7.1% 52% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$41 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$367
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage165d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $101 $115 +$14 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $101 $98 −$4 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 60¢ $53 $60 +$6 (+12%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 60¢ $51 $60 +$8 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 +$46 +138%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $11 +$52 +482%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $54 +$46 +86%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$50 +100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $39 +$61 +156%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 −$38 -77%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -79%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $55 +$45 +82%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $52 +$52 +101%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$43 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $47 +$36 +77%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $49 +$51 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$150 +292%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $54 +$45 +83%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 −$18 -31%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $138 −$126 -91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $150 +$209 +139%
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 09 $484 +$135 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $52 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $63 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $34 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $0 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $12 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes $1 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $2 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $4 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 12h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $11 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $50 14h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $54 14h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $39 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $53 33h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL Yes $0 34h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $17 34h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $100 34h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $55 35h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $43 39h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 49¢ $52 46h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $0 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.43 · official $427.43 (match) · 82 history records