Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5b6b…21e7 crypto 1098 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$572 (-5%) realized −$557 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%501W / 572L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$88
14 days−$85
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$787
sports 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -11.4% -19.9% 51% 49% -18.9%
≤30d 467 -5.8% -14.7% 49% 49% -14.8%
≤90d 1073 -10.6% -19.1% 47% 45% -15.8%
all 1073 -10.6% -19.1% 47% 45% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 45% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 43% -23.9%
15% -33.9% 39% -31.2%
20% -40.4% 35% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$557
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses501 / 572
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1073 / 1098
History coverage75d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1073 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 +$30 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$16 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $19 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 5¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $17 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.18 (match) · 2293 history records