Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b6b…ec86 sports 829 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,209 (-11%) realized −$7,201 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%278W / 542L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$1,473est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$121
14 days−$59
30 days−$1,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$9,915
other 4% +$293
world 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 43% -4.6%
≤30d 281 -3.8% -13.0% 39% 38% -17.3%
≤90d 820 -12.7% -21.0% 34% 33% -22.8%
all 820 -12.7% -21.0% 34% 33% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 33% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 32% -30.2%
15% -35.4% 31% -37.0%
20% -41.8% 30% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$71 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$7,201
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses278 / 542
Est. fees paid−$1,473
Open positions1
Markets (closed)820 / 829
History coverage61d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 820 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Yu-Hsiou Hsu 24¢ 21¢ $62 $54 −$8 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang Jun 17 $30 +$33 +112%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Oana Georgeta Simion Jun 17 $40 +$76 +191%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Zongyu Li vs Hanna Chang Jun 17 $28 +$47 +170%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $51 +$96 +187%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $18 +$36 +206%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $61 +$17 +28%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $59 +$106 +180%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $44 +$51 +114%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $17 +$27 +155%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $11 +$25 +226%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $17 +$34 +194%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Dunja Maric vs Nadia Podoroska Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $131 −$50 -38%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $69 +$73 +106%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $70 −$69 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $42 +$28 +67%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $45 +$25 +56%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $50 +$37 +74%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $100 +$60 +60%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $37 +$38 +105%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $15 +$21 +141%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $1 +$4 +299%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $62 +$68 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $61 +$11 +18%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $31 +$31 +100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $32 +$38 +122%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Martha Matoula vs Anna Dvorackova Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $44 −$43 -98%
ITF Nice: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Berta Bonardi Jun 10 $44 −$43 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Yu-Hsiou Hsu 24¢ $63 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang SELL Junhan Zhang 99¢ $63 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang BUY Junhan Zhang 46¢ $30 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Daria Zelinskaya 43¢ $50 3h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 35¢ $36 3h
ITF Haskovo: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Oana Georgeta Simion SELL Ilinca Dalina Amariei 98¢ $115 3h
ITF Haskovo: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Oana Georgeta Simion BUY Ilinca Dalina Amariei 33¢ $40 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye BUY Shiyu Ye 45¢ $35 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Zongyu Li vs Hanna Chang SELL Hanna Chang 100¢ $74 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Zongyu Li vs Hanna Chang BUY Hanna Chang 36¢ $28 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Yuyao Li 30¢ $30 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 19¢ $20 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Le Yi Liu 33¢ $34 7h
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Meritxell Teixido Garcia 32¢ $18 15h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 34¢ $51 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Jeline Vandromme 47¢ $54 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Jeline Vandromme 48¢ $24 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 38¢ $45 16h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 31¢ $16 16h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 29¢ $36 16h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 100¢ $165 16h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 35¢ $59 18h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 22¢ $36 18h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $95 18h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $44 18h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 86¢ $44 18h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 33¢ $17 19h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 45¢ $50 19h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 36¢ $27 19h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $37 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.04 · official $47.61 · 1333 history records