Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b66…c465 crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 721d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$505 (-2%) realized −$537 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%50W / 61L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$7
crypto 22% +$11
other 18% −$1,165
sports 10% +$738
world 8% −$39
economics 3% −$55
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -3.0% -12.2% 26% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 43 -4.9% -14.0% 30% 5% -8.0%
all 111 -0.6% -10.1% 45% 9% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 9% -11.1%
10% -18.7% 6% -19.6%
15% -26.5% 6% -27.4%
20% -33.7% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$56 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$1,127
Realized−$537
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses50 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage721d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $291 $291 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $281 $281 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $189 $188 −$1 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $187 $187 −$0 (-0%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? No 29¢ 38¢ $116 $150 +$34 (+29%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $131 +$1 +0%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? Jun 23 $37 −$1 -3%
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 23 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary May 31 $3 $0 -3%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima May 31 $6 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $16 $0 -3%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $38 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 31 $18 −$4 -22%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $6 −$1 -19%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? May 31 $10 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 31 $192 +$6 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $2 $0 -3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $5 $0 -4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 23 $156 +$129 +83%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $141 −$13 -9%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 09 $45 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $90 −$1 -1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 09 $297 +$38 +13%
LoL: HMBLE vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group E Apr 03 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? Apr 03 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $550 $0 +0%
Will Paradex launch a token by May 31, 2026? Mar 13 $230 +$1 +0%
China coup attempt before 2027? Mar 04 $209 −$1 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 14 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $14 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 86¢ $189 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $291 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $3 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $111 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $146 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $18 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL No 80¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,126.65 · official $1,126.65 (match) · 849 history records