Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b66…dcf0 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$157 (-17%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -22.0% -29.5% 42% 37% -11.6%
≤30d 19 -22.0% -29.5% 42% 37% -11.6%
≤90d 19 -22.0% -29.5% 42% 37% -11.6%
all 19 -22.0% -29.5% 42% 37% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 37% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 37% -20.0%
15% -42.4% 32% -27.7%
20% -48.0% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$26 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$31 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$21 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$74 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $59 −$20 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$36 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $50 −$15 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$14 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$14 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$48 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $114 +$68 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$52 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $77 +$4 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$10 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$10 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $82 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $130 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $38 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $37 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $85 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $67 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $35 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $174 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $75 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records