Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b64…bf57 world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$11
sports 19% −$14
other 19% +$3
politics 13% +$5
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 61 +27.6% +15.4% 25% 5% -9.6%
all 68 +25.0% +13.1% 26% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 7% -10.1%
10% +2.3% 6% -18.7%
15% -7.6% 3% -26.6%
20% -16.7% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 50
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage536d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $52 −$2 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $45 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 +$1 +25%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $87 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $21 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $93 −$6 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $41 −$1 -3%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 -19%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $82 +$2 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $151 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $25 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $25 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $50 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $51 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 345 history records