Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b63…0788 other 14 markets active 4h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$83 (-7%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$121
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -24.3% -31.5% 14% 7% -18.4%
≤30d 14 -24.3% -31.5% 14% 7% -18.4%
≤90d 14 -24.3% -31.5% 14% 7% -18.4%
all 14 -24.3% -31.5% 14% 7% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.5% 7% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.0% 7% -26.2%
15% -44.0% 7% -33.4%
20% -49.5% 7% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$39 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 +$3 +5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $79 −$6 -8%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$9 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$13 -13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $581 −$206 -35%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $51 −$45 -88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $82 +$346 +422%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $125 −$122 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $54 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $73 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $94 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $90 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $79 22h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 86¢ $428 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 28¢ $125 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 19¢ $125 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $200 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 44¢ $251 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $374 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records