Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b62…9e91 politics 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%52W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$8
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$7
other 32% −$20
sports 13% +$2
crypto 7% −$1
world 6% −$8
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.1% -13.3% 17% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 47 -1.2% -10.6% 2% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 147 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.4%
all 249 -0.6% -10.1% 21% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses52 / 197
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage144d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 22 $23 $0 -2%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 22 $29 −$5 -17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $18 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 08 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 06 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 06 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 -4%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 03 $31 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $17 $0 -2%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $21 $0 -1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $16 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 23 $11 $0 -1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 23 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $8 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 22 $49 $0 -1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 26m
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 63¢ $16 26m
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 26m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 48m
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 48m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 43¢ $2 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $5 13d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 13d
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 13d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 13d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 13d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $6 13d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $6 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 14d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $10 14d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1300 history records