Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b62…4851 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,573 (+7%) realized +$2,634 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate74%25W / 9L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$996per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% +$3,173
world 14% −$1,449
crypto 9% +$441
other 6% +$191
economics 4% +$62
sports 3% +$194
tech 2% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.7% -15.6% 60% 40% +2.1%
≤30d 5 -6.7% -15.6% 60% 40% +2.1%
≤90d 10 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 30% -49.2%
all 34 +3.4% -6.5% 74% 29% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 29% -2.9%
10% -15.4% 18% -12.2%
15% -23.6% 18% -20.7%
20% -31.1% 9% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$191 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$2,634
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage616d
Avg bet$996
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 19 $100 +$49 +49%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $200 +$35 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $203 −$11 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1,736 −$1,108 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$4 +366%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? Feb 18 $500 +$16 +3%
Will Team Liquid win Blast Slam VI? Feb 16 $50 +$28 +56%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $1,518 +$175 +12%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $1,456 +$62 +4%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jan 28 $1,626 +$163 +10%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1,241 +$194 +16%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9? Dec 14 $1,065 +$34 +3%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30? Dec 10 $1,037 +$28 +3%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November? Nov 28 $963 +$65 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 26 $100 −$92 -92%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 18 $999 +$63 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 21? Jul 21 $585 +$431 +74%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jul 20 $710 −$429 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $443 −$73 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $376 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 24? May 25 $130 +$60 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $310 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 21 $304 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $300 +$4 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 18? May 19 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $18,879 +$2,866 +15%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $149 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 67¢ $100 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $200 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $192 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $100 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $629 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $736 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,000 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 79d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? SELL No 98¢ $516 120d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? BUY No 95¢ $500 123d
Will Team Liquid win Blast Slam VI? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 125d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 98¢ $1,692 125d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 98¢ $1,018 125d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 72¢ $500 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,518 139d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,456 140d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $414 142d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $101 142d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 142d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 143d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.97 · official $138.97 (match) · 141 history records