Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5B
0x5b61…5d69
other · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$96 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$128
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage54d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 5 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 24 $50 −$47 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $40 −$35 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 22 $16 −$15 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $228 +$29 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$5
crypto 19% −$63
other 16% −$2
politics 7% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $50 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $76 48d
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on April 24, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 51d
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 51d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 89¢ $257 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 79¢ $228 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -59.9% -63.7% 20% 20% -29.1%
all 5 -59.9% -63.7% 20% 20% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.7% 20% -29.1%
10% -67.2% 0% -35.9%
15% -70.4% 0% -42.1%
20% -73.3% 0% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.64 · official $127.65 (match) · 13 history records