Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5b5e…3d7d other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$279 (+21%) realized +$433 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip
Net edge+75%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$86
sports 7% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+82.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +101.5% +82.3% 100% 100% +44.0%
≤30d 3 +101.5% +82.3% 100% 100% +44.0%
≤90d 3 +101.5% +82.3% 100% 100% +44.0%
all 3 +101.5% +82.3% 100% 100% +44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +82.3% 100% +44.0%
10% +64.9% 67% +30.2%
15% +48.9% 67% +17.7%
20% +34.3% 67% +6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $304 $349 +$45 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $250 $51 −$199 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $371 +$189 +51%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $321 +$51 +16%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $95 +$225 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $305 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $255 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 89¢ $560 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $371 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $321 10h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $95 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.98 · official $399.98 (match) · 8 history records