Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b5e…30d3 world 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+4%) realized +$242 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate59%32W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$270
14 days+$71
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$401
politics 16% −$150
other 5% +$13
finance 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.4% -1.0% 64% 45% +7.5%
≤30d 33 -8.9% -17.6% 61% 30% -6.2%
≤90d 53 -8.3% -17.0% 60% 26% -4.6%
all 54 -8.4% -17.1% 59% 26% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 26% -5.2%
10% -25.1% 9% -14.3%
15% -32.3% 9% -22.5%
20% -38.9% 6% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$533
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses32 / 22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage119d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $444 $464 +$20 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 42¢ $61 $55 −$5 (-9%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 76¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+112%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 28¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 83¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $445 +$54 +12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$2 -5%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $20 +$22 +108%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $307 +$143 +47%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $112 +$10 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $263 +$31 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $13 $0 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $180 +$11 +6%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -20%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 11 $290 +$12 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 09 $195 −$195 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +65%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$6 -40%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $39 −$7 -18%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $72 −$50 -70%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $439 +$38 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $86 +$5 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $170 +$7 +4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $129 +$13 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $51 +$43 +84%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $282 +$7 +2%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 24 $4 −$3 -77%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $22 +$3 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $97 +$9 +9%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -31%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2 May 15 $87 +$6 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 12 $6 −$3 -52%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 11 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -85%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5? May 03 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4? May 02 $0 $0 -58%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? May 01 $282 +$23 +8%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? May 01 $189 +$2 +1%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 29 $241 +$10 +4%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $284 +$16 +6%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $204 +$80 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $44 −$13 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 1m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $44 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $198 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $198 19h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $100 19h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $101 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $100 19h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $70 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $70 19h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $17 21h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 28h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $45 42h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 42h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 44h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 83¢ $21 44h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 45h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $200 46h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 84¢ $21 46h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 88¢ $44 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $0 3d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $1 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.57 · official $532.57 (match) · 273 history records