Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b5d…5149 crypto 538 markets active 19d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$187 (-4%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%160W / 378L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$360
weather 0% −$20
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 46 -45.2% -50.4% 28% 28% -31.6%
≤90d 529 -18.3% -26.1% 30% 29% -15.6%
all 538 -19.5% -27.2% 30% 29% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 29% -16.5%
10% -34.2% 27% -24.5%
15% -40.5% 24% -31.8%
20% -46.3% 22% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses160 / 378
Open positions0
Markets (closed)538 / 538
History coverage78d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 538 Trades
no open positions (268 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$8 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $7 +$8 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$8 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 29 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 29 $13 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $14 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $20 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1100 history records