Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b5c…a32f crypto 23 markets active 3d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-29%) realized −$12 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$3
politics 39% −$10
world 13% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -20.5% -28.1% 22% 22% -23.7%
≤30d 18 -20.5% -28.1% 22% 22% -23.7%
≤90d 19 -24.7% -31.9% 21% 21% -35.8%
all 19 -24.7% -31.9% 21% 21% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 21% -35.8%
10% -38.4% 21% -41.9%
15% -44.4% 16% -47.5%
20% -49.8% 5% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No $1 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 13¢ $2 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.13 · official $3.13 (match) · 61 history records