Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b59…eb78 crypto 528 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,010 (-10%) realized −$2,010 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate64%336W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$57
14 days−$62
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$608
world 45% −$343
other 2% −$71
sports 1% +$10
politics 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 41% -16.3%
≤30d 169 -0.3% -9.8% 65% 45% -21.6%
≤90d 425 -1.8% -11.2% 70% 32% -13.9%
all 527 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 33% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 33% -14.3%
10% -22.2% 16% -22.5%
15% -29.8% 8% -29.9%
20% -36.6% 4% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,010
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses336 / 191
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)527 / 528
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 527 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$14 +36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $39 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$10 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$32 -79%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$4 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $63 +$25 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 49m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 80¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records