Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b58…eba2 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 1283d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,923 (+11%) realized +$6,004 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%53W / 62L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,014
7 days+$5,845
14 days+$5,892
30 days+$5,892
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$913
sports 28% +$6,412
crypto 10% −$1,165
world 3% −$572
politics 2% +$204
economics 2% −$170
finance 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 35% +8.5%
≤30d 59 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 36% +8.6%
≤90d 59 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 36% +8.6%
all 115 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 38% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 38% +4.5%
10% -20.8% 36% -5.5%
15% -28.5% 31% -14.6%
20% -35.5% 23% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$469 vs −$310 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1283d coverage
Net worth$6,170
Realized+$6,004
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses53 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage1283d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3,050 $3,018 −$32 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1,881 $1,848 −$33 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $922 $914 −$8 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $348 $340 −$8 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,352 +$1,480 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,342 +$1,904 +57%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,231 −$1,203 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $868 −$850 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,162 +$3,049 +262%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,306 −$2,275 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $68 +$27 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,125 +$1,508 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,319 +$965 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $373 +$1,649 +442%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $807 −$790 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $606 −$593 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,551 −$1,540 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $510 +$193 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,052 +$458 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,245 +$1,073 +48%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $129 −$126 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $325 −$317 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $746 −$729 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $861 +$2,647 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $422 +$1,002 +238%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $737 −$726 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,202 −$2,177 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $516 +$482 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $665 +$1,505 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $536 +$1,339 +250%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $295 −$289 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $730 −$716 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $914 −$900 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $549 +$313 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,685 +$1,817 +108%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $85 −$84 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,381 −$1,625 -68%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $193 −$189 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $276 −$275 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,921 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $3,098 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $356 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $933 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 16h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $621 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,758 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $868 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,352 16h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 19h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $610 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,583 19h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,162 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,306 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 47h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 47h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 47h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 47h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $68 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $807 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,125 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $606 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,319 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $373 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,551 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,170.45 · official $6,171.09 (match) · 235 history records